You can not use a shed skin as a means of measuring the snake. The skin is stretched in the process of being shed. Also part of the problem is that what one supplier class as being an adult mouse is another's medium, so its often easier to weigh the food item and use that as the identifier. You could always try the next sized food item and see how they take it. It should leave a nice rugby ball shape bulge after being consumed.
The good thing is that as the snake does most of its growth in the first three years, so what you offer and the frequency in this time isn't that concerning as it is used to grow rather than becoming obese and overweight.
As you can see from the image above the weaner rat is around twice the girth of my Bairds, yet she manages the rat without difficulty. You'll be surprised just how well they can take what seems a large meal.
Lastly, it's great to see you keep records. Keeping records is in my mind as much an important part of reptile keeping as any other aspect. Take a look at
Reptiware which is an affordable PC application that can be used by a hobbyist with one or two snakes, through to a commercial breeder or retailer.